Back in May, Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors was predicting a rally to $25,000 by the end of the year. And despite things not playing quite in his favor — the cryptocurrency is currently trading below $3,400 — he’s sticking to his guns. More here – Bloomberg I do love it…
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One of the problems with trading is that it is awash with various pieces of wisdom and mythology that dont stand up to scrutiny. I try as much as possible to run an evidence based life and when I dont understand something or I hear something that is a bit off the stock standard piece…
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In particular lets talk fake equity curves and by fake I mean either made up (fictitious) or curve fitted ( made up by a machine to look really good) Unfortunately trading abounds with these curves and the internet and particular Facebook is littered with curves that purport to show how someone has managed to turn…
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Unfortunately the archetypal image of a trader is of an individual who is constantly on the move. In the old days the appearance of a trader would include the endlessly repetitive scenes of someone yelling down the phone to their broker issuing a constant stream of instructions. Nowadays the image might be of someone using…
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I have had a bit more fun playing with indices and the theoretical rate of returns they generate over the long term. This time I wanted to look at a different segmentation within the market – I split the All Ordinaries Total Return and the Small Ordinaries Total Return and looked at their relative return.…
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Most investors have way too much cash. Wealthy investors really have too much. This is a phenomenon Citi Private Bank’s David Bailin has observed whether the markets are soaring, stumbling, or stagnant. According to Federal Reserve figures, retail investors had about 18% of their assets in money market funds and in U.S. bank deposits, considered…
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Its a shitty day in Melbourne, so with nothing better to do I decided to fire up excel, download a bit of data and see what I could learn. Anyone who has spent more than 10 minutes on this blog will realise that I am fascinated by mechanisms of generating excess return with minimal cost…
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Every now and again you hear of someone who managed to win the lottery with their magic scheme, you might even hear that some mathematician has found out what numbers are most likely to be drawn. When I hear of such things I am always amazed that said mathematician seems to confuse lucky with random…
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In the first quarter of last year I begin to tinker with my short term system – in fact the tinkering was so extreme that it essentially became a brand new system. Fortunately, this tinkering coincided with a the onset of a new financial year so I have a full year of data to review…
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