One of the things I find most intriguing about this industry is that often a table, a chart, or a statement is offered, and it’s offered with a context or nuance, and that means there is very little understanding about what is driving what the chart or table. In this episode, I will discuss the…
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For decades, the sell-side analyst was a market hero. Their notes could and did move markets, their calls were quoted in the press, and their proximity to CEOs made them seem like gatekeepers of secret knowledge. That age is over. The world has changed with AI-driven data, real-time news flow, and algorithmic markets; the analyst…
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The title of this piece is derived from an article in the AFR, which examines what I consider to be a somewhat baffling decision by a reasonably sized local fund to continue shorting CBA despite its strong price growth. The decision by Sage Capital to continue shorting Commonwealth Bank (CBA), despite a +36% rally and…
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There is an old maxim in trading: if it feels comfortable, then you are probably doing it wrong. Dollar Cost Averaging is one such strategy – it is designed to make you feel better, not make you more profitable. For some odd reason, this topic has been bombarding my inbox for the past week. I…
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“Give me a one-handed Economist. All my economists say ‘on ONE hand…’, then ‘but on the other…”― Harry Truman. I’m often sent snippets and commentary from various economists — well-meaning professionals who aim to explain what the market should or should not be doing, based on their models of economic fundamentals. But there’s a consistent…
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This article is behind a paywall, but you can get the general gist from the opening two paragraphs. If the pay of local fund managers were based on ability, the vast majority would be delivering newspapers to make ends meet. China is considering slashing pay of fund managers who underperform their benchmarks as part of…
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If you were to run a competition for the most maligned and misunderstood trading technique in Australia short selling would most likely come out on top. The intriguing thing about this is that not that short selling is misunderstood by uber sooks such as Gerry Harvey but also by market regulators such as ASIC. Who…
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This is a little quiz. Below is a simple weekly chart of NVDA with a 30-period moving average plotted. Moving averages are simple but effective tools for defining the underlying trend of an instrument. The question is can you spot those times when you should be a buyer of NVDA? If you can you are a…
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As the New Year rolls around the media is once again awash with its annual range of predictions for the year ahead. Despite their complete inaccuracy predictions are unfortunately a dominant art of the economic landscape. This raises the question of why people make predictions even though they know they will be wrong and…
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