I came across this piece the other day. It is a good bit of work because it highlights neatly the interplay between returns, risk and drawdown. This triumvirate holds sway over the trajectory of our investing but it is continually ignored by most, as all traders in some way shape or form seek the biggest…
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WTF?……. The Monty Hall Dilemma is a probability puzzle that is notorious for eliciting suboptimal decisions from humans. A participant is given a choice from among three doors, one of which conceals a valuable prize. After an initial selection, one of the remaining, nonwinning doors is opened, and the participant is given a chance to…
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In 1978, Wilson had a disastrous experience shorting the Resorts International casino company. Forbes dubbed it “the most catastrophic short play in modern times.” Wilson reasoned that gambling wouldn’t catch on in Atlantic City in the 1970s. Jet travel was picking up and people could easily fly to Las Vegas instead. Ironically, he has since been proven…
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